Browsing the archives for the Politics category.


My 2008 Election Predictions

Politics

President Obama wins the Electoral College 353 – 195, with an 9% margin over McCain in the popular vote.

Democrats pick up 8 additional Senate seats (AK, CO, MN, NC, NH, NM, OR, VA), for a 57+2 advantage in the Senate.

Democrats pick up an additional 32 House seats.

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Seattle Times Stays The Course

Politics

…the course of endorsing Republican candidates for office, that is.  Today they announced their endorsement of Marcia McCraw for Lieutentant Governor of the State of Washington.  Brad Owen has served in that role for twelve years of mostly uncomplicated and uncontroversial stewardship, but the Times believes that McCraw’s candidacy “represents an opportunity for an infusion of new ideas and energy.”

This is sort of like endorsing Sarah Palin for Vice President.  In the event of a death or injury to the Governor (god forbid), the Lieutenant Governor steps in to take the helm.  Does anyone really believe that McCraw would be a better choice for that role than Brad Owen?

Following on the Times’ endorsement of Dino Rossi for governor, I can’t say I’m surprised.  But I am glad that almost everyone around recognizes that the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, and not the Times, is the best newspaper in the state.

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Best Election Ad of the Season

Politics

This ad is a reprise of the cult-favorite 2000 “wassup” ad from Budweiser, only with a couple updates for the times:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE]

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Tough Decision in Washington’s 36th

Politics

Helen Sommers, the long-serving representative for Washington’s 36th legislative district, announced earlier this year that she would be retiring at the end of this term. This set up a strong primary battle between John Burbank and Reuven Carlyle, both Democrats.

For voters in the 36th, this is a tough decision. Both men seem bright, qualified, and progressive. Both have an impressive set of endorsements. Both would do well in the legislature.  Reuven won the primary by about 4 percent, so he is probably slightly favored for the general election.  Burbank seems to have wrapped up  the party-insider vote, which is an advantage in terms of volunteer recruitment.

I’m going to vote for Reuven Carlyle, for three reasons:

He and his supporters seem more enthusiastic and energetic.  I have personally seen Reuven out canvassing my neighborhood many times since the summer.

Reuven appears to bring more experience in green tech and renewables, which is a great local issue and one in which I hope the State of Washington takes a leading role.

Finally, I was slightly put off by a Burbank mailer that made an obvious and blatant comparison between him and Senator President-Elect Obama.  It was a little too much of a frontal assault on one’s normal political filters.

Go Reuven!

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Tough Decision in Washington’s 36th

Politics

Helen Sommers, the long-serving representative for Washington’s 36th legislative district, announced earlier this year that she would be retiring at the end of this term. This set up a strong primary battle between John Burbank and Reuven Carlyle, both Democrats.

For voters in the 36th, this is a tough decision. Both men seem bright, qualified, and progressive. Both have an impressive set of endorsements. Both would do well in the legislature.  Reuven won the primary by about 4 percent, so he is probably slightly favored for the general election.  Burbank seems to have wrapped up  the party-insider vote, which is an advantage in terms of volunteer recruitment.

I’m going to vote for Reuven Carlyle, for three reasons:

He and his supporters seem more enthusiastic and energetic.  I have personally seen Reuven out canvassing my neighborhood many times since the summer.

Reuven appears to bring more experience in green tech and renewables, which is a great local issue and one in which I hope the State of Washington takes a leading role.

Finally, I was slightly put off by a Burbank mailer that made an obvious and blatant comparison between him and Senator President-Elect Obama.  It was a little too much of a frontal assault on one’s normal political filters.

Go Reuven!

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W And The Great Man Theory

Philosophy, Politics

I’ve heard Oliver Stone interviewed twice in the last couple days about his new movie “W” and both times I’ve heard him make the statement that he thinks that by exploring the man, we can get a better understanding of how we got to the place we currently find ourselves in.

I’m not so sure I agree.

This line of thinking supposes that the Great Man Theory is correct; that Bush 43 was the primary driver of the Iraq War, deregulation, credit default swaps, and all the rest. Even if you don’t buy the theory that W was a pawn of larger forces, embodied by Dick Cheney and the PNAC crowd, it just seems to me that there is too much going on in the world today for any one person to have that much of a significant impact.

For the Hollywood dramatist, there is an institutional bias in favor of the Great Man Theory.

What do you think?

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Social Issues In the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Politics

Whither the social issues of yore?

In past elections, you couldn’t go two minutes without hearing about how this or that social issue was going to decide the election. Gays, abortion, welfare, crime – none of these are anywhere to be found in this year’s election cycle.

Is it that the economy has so overwhelmed the rest of the field? Or is it that Obama has deftly steered a course around or through these issues, leaving very little for the right wing to grab hold of? For a person who purportedly has the most liberal voting record in the Senate, that’s a remarkable accomplishment.

There may be something else in play: the relentless focus on “palling around with terrorists” among much of the conservative base. Could that be crowding out these other issues?

Are we to the point where, as Governor Dean said in 2004, the white guys in pickup trucks flying the Confederate flag are now going to vote their economic interest?

Or have the Republicans forgotten, Lacuna-like, how to conduct a traditional wedge issue campaign?

Any way you slice it, it’s a very interesting (and welcome) phenomenon.

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Political Junkie Fix

Politics

30 days to go until the election, and if you’re anything like me, you won’t let a day go by without getting your fix of the latest political news, pollling data, and rumors from the internet. Here’s a list of sites that I won’t go without in the next month.

Five Thirty Eight
http://fivethirtyeight.com
Newcomer Nate Silver has put together an election site specifically targeted at quants like me. Delicious.

Wonkette
http://wonkette.com
In the last 15 years, nothing has made me laugh harder than (a) watching certain Simpsons episodes and (b) reading the Wonkette comment sections. Leans so far left that they can reach out and touch the ground. WALNUTS!

Pollster.com
http://pollster.com
This was my former #1 polling flame, until supplanted this cycle by Five Thirty Eight. Pollster.com is the outgrowth of mysterypollster.com, which started a couple months before the 2004 election and kept me glued to the monitor during the runup to that election.

Politico
http://politico.com
A right-tilting collection of heavyweights in political journalism, this site prints the latest news and gossip.

Daily Kos
http://dailykos.com
The mothership of left-leaning political websites, you can’t miss the daily Abbreviated Pundit Round-up.

Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire
http://politicalwire.com
Good daily summary and link farm to the latest news.

Others you might enjoy: Marc Ambinder, Andrew Sullivan, National Review Online’s The Corner, ABC’s The Note, TIME Magazine’s Swampland.

Have fun and GO OBAMA!

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Transparency In The McCain Campaign

Politics

I do not think that “transparency” means what David Brooks thinks it means:

DAVID BROOKS: The 2000 campaign. Now, because of technology — technology is supposed to create transparency. It does the exact opposite. There’s cameras everywhere. There’s phone cameras everywhere. There is no off-the-record moment.

Isn’t that exactly what we’re hoping for – that politicians don’t pander? Tell us one thing in public while privately believing something else?

David Brooks is right on one thing, though – McCain would be doing a lot better if he ran as the authentic 2000 version of McCain. To blame the change on the media, however, is insulting. There are 10,000 media outlets (you’re reading one right now!) and we no longer need the “network news” – God, what a dated phrase – to summarize the Story of the Day.

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What A Difference Six Minutes Makes

Politics

From Pollster.com this morning:

In my day, we used to stay on message! *shakes fist*

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