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Jan 3, 2008 
Well, my predictions are off by a bit. I underestimated the extent of Obama’s victory in Iowa, due almost certainly to the massive turnout. I also didn’t see how the Huck could come in to 1st place, but the final DMR polls seemed right on the money.
Here’s my predicted vs. actual numbers as of about 7:45 PM PDT:
| Democrat: | ||
| Obama | 31% | 38% |
| Clinton | 30% | 29% |
| Edwards | 27% | 30% |
| Richardson | 5% | 2% |
| Biden | 4% | 1% |
| Republican | ||
| Romney | 33% | 25% |
| Huckabee | 30% | 34% |
| McCain | 8% | 14% |
| Paul | 8% | 10% |
| Giuliani | 7% | 4% |
| Thompson | - | 13% |
BIG WINNERS: Obama and Huckabee, with a close second place to McCain if he can hang on to 3rd place over Thompson. If McCain does well in New Hampshire, watch out for the long knives of the entrenched GOP to come out like they did in South Carolina in 2000.
BIG LOSERS: Hard to see this as anything other than a devastating loss for Clinton. “Inevitability” is now so 2007. Giuliani also came in behind almost everyone else, but his expectations were low. He needs to do well in New Hampshire.
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Election, Iowa Caucus
